Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during. Alternative worlds, national intelligence council, united states 20 canadas energy future 20. A global human community but a growing expectations gap empowerment of individuals global rise of the middle class. Alternative worlds, which the atlantic council helped prepare, and global trends to 2030 and the prospects for chinaus relations, prepared under the direction of ciis and peking. Alternative worlds report identifies key metatrends that will shape the future international system, including the. National intelligence council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. The chinaus joint working group assessment builds on reports by experts in the two countries, including the us national intelligence councils global trends 2030. The term black swan has been part of the popular vernacular for a number of years, but it is often thrown around so liberally that some clarification would be helpful in order to understand why and how global trends 2030 discusses black swans as an important outgrowth of the intelligence communitys analysis.
Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed. Both developing and developed countries face stiff challenges to achieve a new. The highlevel conference will convene more than 150 participants from the. This important report, global trends 2030alternative worlds, released in 2012 by the u. The global trends 2030 report depicts three hypothetical future worlds and examines their implications. A condensed version of the report is also available 1. Preparing governments for long term threats and complex.
Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence councilled effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. Overview of the national intelligence council report on. Following the approach of the global trends 2030 report, let us consider three possible scenarios for the shape of the security council in 2030. Topics included demographics, climatology, global interconnectedness, and natural. The competing forces shaping 2030 2 contents pwc s global people and organisation practice brings together an.
This year, principal author mathew burrows and his colleagues focus on a series of plausible. Alternative worlds report, authored by the nics resident thought leader and global futurist par. National intelligence council releases global trends report. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the. In this volume, they expanded their coverage of disruptive technologies, devoting a separate section to it in the. Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence council.
The world bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030. Unique among intelligence products of this depth and stature, the national intelligence councils quadrennial global trends report is. Global trends 2030 suggests that the united states most likely will remain first among equals among the other great powers in 2030 because of its preeminence across a range of power dimensions and legacies of its leadership role over the past several decades. Every four years since 1997, the national intelligence council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior us leaders think and plan for the longer term. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations.
Alternative worlds national intelligence council dec 2012 global trends 2030. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. The global trends 2030 report by the national intelligence council proposes a scenario called the. Burrows, counselor, us national intelligence council. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for us strategy moving forward. The first, stasis, assumes that, in light of the background trends presented in the global trends report, the council remains essentially unchanged over the next 18 years. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project is the third unclassified report prepared by the national intelligence council nic in recent years that takes a longterm view of the future. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Scores of people contributed to the preparation of global trends 2030, and we.
Energy supply and demand projections to 2035, national energy board, canada 20 disruptive technologies. Citizens in an interconnected and polycentric world summary theme major trends ancillary trends empowerment of individuals. What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Peter groen take the time to look over the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils nic series of reports aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future entitled global trends 2030.
Us national intelligence council global trends 2030. Drawing on a range of political, economic, and social trends, this paper. Trends 2030 pdf, prepared by the national intelligence council. Most forecasts indicate that by 2020 chinas gross national product gnp will. A publication of the national intelligence cou ncil.
More important than just its economic weight, the united states dominant role. The reportthe paradox of progressis rooted in conversations with more than 2,500 people around the world from all walks of life in more than 35 countries. Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, mckinsey global institute 20. National intelligence council releases its global trends 2030. The national intelligence council today released its quadrennial global trends report. Prepared under the direction of the national intelligence council. This is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. Global trends is the intelligence communitys major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world over the next two decades.
Report of the national intelligence council s 2020 project based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. Alternative worlds, was issued by the national intelligence council, an analytical arm of the u.
As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. A publication of the national intelligence council global trends january 2017. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future as with previous editions, the national intelligence council hopes that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. A publication of the national intelligence council. Cia global trends 2030 by exopolitics hungary issuu. A dialogue about the future with nongovernment experts this paper was approved for publication by the national foreign intelligence board under the authority of the director of central intelligence. The national intelligence councils nic justreleased global trends 2030. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project open pdf 6 mb mapping the global future. National intelligence council global trends assessment. Global megatrends for the next 20 years and how they will affect the united states. Two years ago, writes chairman of the national intelligence council gregory treverton, the global trends team began interviewing experts in and out of government around the world 2,500 people in all, from 35 countries.
For nearly two decades, the national intelligence councils global trends report has shaped strategic discussion within and outside the us government. The atlantic council s brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence council s nic global trends 2030. This week, the national intelligence council released its quadrennial report about global trends, and its a sober read. Alternative worlds, released by the office of the director of national intelligence, the apex body of 16 us intelligence agencies, says china alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the united states a few years before 2030. It all depends on how events develop over the next decade, according to a new report, global trends 2030, prepared by the national intelligence council, comprising the 17 u. Paradox of progress january 16, 2017 the following assessment is part of a series released every four years by. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series. How to read the national intelligence councils latest. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global. This publication was prepared by the european committee of the regions in the context of the forthcoming european strategy. Paradox of progress, it consulted a diverse set of voices worldwideboth established and newto help it question assumptions, identify new issues, and help conceptualize a framework that lays out in a cogent and understandable style the consequential trends and surprises that could occur in the next 20 years. Thomas fingar presented findings from the national intelligence council report examining global trends up to 2025. The national intelligence councils global trends 2030 report predicts. Global trends 2030 rapport du national intelligence council.
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